Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 3.931846 4.628139 5.399631 6.316116 7.373372 8.552910 9.966701
2025-08-17 2.636862 3.502216 4.568572 5.971583 7.760374 9.955360 12.842323
2025-08-24 1.944679 2.862685 4.099958 5.871765 8.322729 11.568919 16.163912
2025-08-31 1.503280 2.420630 3.756545 5.812876 8.859258 13.157869 19.620278
2025-09-07 1.266155 2.203905 3.663634 6.052921 9.802545 15.379549 24.190198
2025-09-14 1.047679 1.960489 3.471466 6.087314 10.411888 17.154395 28.285751
2025-09-21 0.877639 1.756857 3.297371 6.105015 10.971301 18.887075 32.479681
2025-09-28 0.742770 1.584557 3.140200 6.114076 11.497787 20.601272 36.801670
2025-10-05 0.703284 1.583359 3.284329 6.668272 13.019310 24.106493 44.422110
2025-10-12 0.629382 1.497001 3.251870 6.886009 13.957046 26.698609 50.729963
2025-10-19 0.566577 1.420424 3.223820 7.102922 14.910604 29.402099 57.477588
2025-10-26 0.493733 1.305867 3.097911 7.102412 15.439625 31.375143 63.077872
2025-11-02 0.410057 1.150119 2.862911 6.851540 15.462988 32.447352 67.203043
2025-11-09 0.334321 0.996193 2.604702 6.510941 15.259561 33.066324 70.545244
2025-11-16 0.285992 0.901389 2.465809 6.413617 15.555009 34.698048 76.022494
2025-11-23 0.247182 0.822836 2.351365 6.353533 15.920557 36.503619 82.013376
2025-11-30 0.228847 0.798740 2.369813 6.615338 17.042843 39.996571 91.783651
2025-12-07 0.203189 0.745949 2.302990 6.653146 17.645834 42.429246 99.532664
2025-12-14 0.180221 0.695643 2.233451 6.672526 18.205262 44.816654 107.391495
2025-12-21 0.159924 0.648722 2.164566 6.682419 18.741038 47.198956 115.443299
2025-12-28 0.159743 0.671742 2.304434 7.283550 20.832262 53.323058 132.332762
2026-01-04 0.148623 0.652522 2.313703 7.519635 22.012362 57.429021 144.976426
2026-01-11 0.138416 0.634069 2.322146 7.754771 23.217116 61.699136 158.338715